A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
